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71.
72.
Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
73.
Some conceptual models suggest that baseflow in agriculturally fragmented watersheds may contain little, if any, groundwater. This has critical implications for stream quality and ecosystem functioning. Here, we (a) identify the sources and flowpaths contributing to baseflow using 222Rn and 87Sr/86Sr and (b) quantify mean apparent ages of groundwater and baseflow using multiple isotopic tracers (CFC, SF6, 36Cl, and 3H) in 4 small (0.08 to 0.64 km2) tributary catchments to the Wabash River in Indiana, USA. 222Rn activities and 87Sr/86Sr ratios indicate that baseflow in 3 catchments is sourced primarily from groundwater; baseflow in the fourth is dominated by a source similar to agricultural run‐off. CFC‐12 data indicate that springs in 1 catchment are discharging significant proportions of water that recharged between 1974 (42 ± 2 years) and 1961 (55 ± 2 years). Those same springs have 36Cl/Cl ratios between 1,381.08 ± 29.37 (×10?15) and 1,530.64 ± 27.65 (×10?15) indicating that a substantial proportion of the discharge likely recharged between 1975 (41 years) and 1950 (66 years). Groundwater samples collected from streambed mini‐piezometers in a separate catchment have CFC‐12 concentrations indicating that a large proportion of the recharge occurred between 1948 (68 ± 2 years) and 1950 (66 ± 2 years). Repeat sampling conducted in September 2015 after above‐average summer rainfall did not show significant decreases in mean apparent age. The relatively old ages observed in 3 of the catchments can be explained by geological complexities that are likely present in all 4 catchments, but overwhelmed by flow from the shallow phreatic aquifer in the fourth catchment.  相似文献   
74.
The textural and chemical evolution of allanite and monazite along a well‐constrained prograde metamorphic suite in the High Himalayan Crystalline of Zanskar was investigated to determine the P–T conditions for the crystallization of these two REE accessory phases. The results of this study reveals that: (i) allanite is the stable REE accessory phase in the biotite and garnet zone and (ii) allanite disappears at the staurolite‐in isograd, simultaneously with the occurrence of the first metamorphic monazite. Both monazite and allanite occur as inclusions in staurolite, indicating that the breakdown of allanite and the formation of monazite proceeded during staurolite crystallization. Staurolite growth modelling indicates that staurolite crystallized between 580 and 610 °C, thus setting the lower temperature limit for the monazite‐forming reaction at ~600 °C. Preservation of allanite and monazite inclusions in garnet (core and rim) constrains the garnet molar composition when the first monazite was overgrown and subsequently encompassed by the garnet crystallization front. Garnet growth modelling and the intersection of isopleths reveal that the monazite closest to the garnet core was overgrown by the garnet advancing crystallization front at 590 °C, which establishes an upper temperature limit for monazite crystallization. Significantly, the substitution of allanite by monazite occurs in close spatial proximity, i.e. at similar P–T conditions, in all rock types investigated, from Al‐rich metapelites to more psammitic metasedimentary rocks. This indicates that major silicate phases, such as staurolite and garnet, do not play a significant role in the monazite‐forming reaction. Our data show that the occurrence of the first metamorphic monazite in these rocks was mainly determined by the P–T conditions, not by bulk chemical composition. In Barrovian terranes, dating prograde monazite in metapelites thus means constraining the time when these rocks reached the 600 °C isotherm.  相似文献   
75.
Exceptional rainfall events cause significant losses of soil, although few studies have addressed the validation of model predictions at field scale during severe erosive episodes. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of the enhanced Soil Erosion and Redistribution Tool (SERT‐2014) model for mapping and quantifying soil erosion during the exceptional rainfall event (~235 mm) that affected the Central Spanish Pyrenees in October 2012. The capacity of the simulation model is evaluated in a fallow cereal field (1.9 ha) at a high spatial scale (1 × 1 m). Validation was performed with field‐quantified rates of soil loss in the rills and ephemeral gullies and also with a detailed map of soil redistribution. The SERT‐2014 model was run for the six rainfall sub‐events that made up the exceptional event, simulating the different hydrological responses of soils with maximum runoff depths ranging between 40 and 1017 mm. Predicted average and maximum soil erosion was 11 and 117 Mg ha?1 event?1, respectively. Total soil loss and sediment yield to the La Reina gully amounted to 16.3 and 9.0 Mg event?1. These rates are in agreement with field estimations of soil loss of 20.0 Mg event?1. Most soil loss (86%) occurred during the first sub‐event. Although soil accumulation was overestimated in the first sub‐event because of the large amount of detached soil, the enhanced SERT‐2014 model successfully predicted the different spatial patterns and values of soil redistribution for each sub‐event. Further research should focus on stream transport capacity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
76.
Previous work on three‐dimensional shakedown analysis of cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads has been entirely for isotropic materials. As a result, the effects of anisotropy, both elastic and plastic, of soil and pavement materials are ignored. This paper will, for the first time, develop three‐dimensional shakedown solutions to allow for the variation of elastic and plastic material properties with direction. Melan's lower‐bound shakedown theorem is used to derive shakedown solutions. In particular, a generalised, anisotropic Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion and cross‐anisotropic elastic stress fields are utilised to develop anisotropic shakedown solutions. It is found that shakedown solutions for anisotropic materials are dominated by Young's modulus ratio for the cases of subsurface failure and by shear modulus ratio for the cases of surface failure. Plastic anisotropy is mainly controlled by material cohesion ratio, the rise of which increases the shakedown limit until a maximum value is reached. The anisotropic shakedown limit varies with frictional coefficient, and the peak value may not occur for the case of normal loading only. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
77.
78.
Migmatites are predominant in the North Qinling (NQ) orogen, but their formation ages are poorly constrained. This paper presents a combined study of cathodoluminescence imaging, U–Pb age, trace element and Hf isotopes of zircon in migmatites from the NQ unit. In the migmatites, most zircon grains occur as new, homogeneous crystals, while some are present as overgrowth rims around inherited cores. Morphological and trace element features suggest that the zircon crystals are metamorphic and formed during partial melting. The inherited cores have oscillatory zoning and yield U–Pb ages of c. 900 Ma, representing their protolith ages. The early Neoproterozoic protoliths probably formed in an active continental margin, being a response to the assembly of the supercontinent Rodinia. The migmatite zircon yields Hf model ages of 1911 ± 20 to 990 ± 22 Ma, indicating that the protoliths were derived from reworking of Palaeoproterozoic to Neoproterozoic crustal materials. The anatexis zircon yields formation ages ranging from 455 ± 5 to 420 ± 4 Ma, with a peak at c. 435 Ma. Combined with previous results, we suggest that the migmatization of the NQ terrane occurred at c. 455–400 Ma. The migmatization was c. 50 Ma later than the c. 490 Ma ultra‐high‐P (UHP) metamorphism, indicating that they occurred in two independent tectonic events. By contrast, the migmatization was coeval with the granulite facies metamorphism and the granitic magmatism in the NQ unit, which collectively argue for their formation due to the northward subduction of the Shangdan Ocean. UHP rocks were distributed mainly along the northern margin and occasionally in the inner part of the NQ unit, indicating that they were exhumed along the northern edge and detached from the basement by the subsequent migmatization process.  相似文献   
79.
80.
The hydrologic response of engineered media plays an important role in determining a stormwater control measure's ability to reduce runoff volume, flow rate, timing, and pollutant loads. Five engineered media, typical of living roof and bioretention stormwater control measures, were investigated in laboratory column experiments for their hydrologic responses to steady, large inflow rates. The inflow, medium water content response, and outflow were all measured. The water flow mechanism (uniform flow vs. preferential flow) was investigated by analyzing medium water content response in terms of timing, magnitude, and sequence with depth. Modeling the hydrologic process was conducted in the HYDRUS‐1D software, applying the Richards equation for uniform flow modeling, and a mobile–immobile model for preferential flow modeling. Uniform flow existed in most cases, including all initially dry living roof media with bimodal pore size distributions and one bioretention medium with unimodal pore size distribution. The Richards equation can predict the outflow hydrograph reasonably well for uniform flow conditions when medium hydraulic properties are adequately represented by appropriate functions. Preferential flow was found in two media with bimodal pore size distributions. The occurrence of preferential flow is more likely due to the interaction between the bimodal pore structure and the initial water content rather than the large inflow rate.  相似文献   
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